I recently received an email from anirudha asking my suggestions on retirement planning for his parents. The timing of his question is good as I have been working on this topic for the last few weeks for my family.
I will try to detail out my thoughts on the above topic in a series of posts. This is however my own idiosyncratic way of doing it. It may make sense for some of you to approach a licensed financial advisor (if they exist in India!) for advice.
Before I discuss about the above topic, let us look at the above issue by inverting the problem. We need to identify what we should absolutely not do when planning for retirement – especially for our parents
1. Chasing returns: Repeat after me – I will not put my parent’s or family’s funds at risk in pursuit of returns. Please read this a few times and memorize the statement. I cannot stress this enough. It would be completely stupid and irresponsible to chase an investment idea for extra returns with your parent’s money when they are depending on this capital to support themselves for the rest of their lives
2. Due diligence – Do not put your family’s money in any instrument without complete due diligence. This includes the obnoxious ULIP schemes sold by most banks and guaranteed return policy sold by friendly insurance agents to unsuspecting seniors. The agents in question are not targeting your parents out of malice. Most of them have good intentions, it’s just that they do not fully understand the product they are selling. So please avoid all such agents unless you are sure you are buying something worth it.
3. Be realistic – Do not assume returns in excess of 10-12% for a conservative, low risk portfolio. Even if you have made 30% returns in the past and consider yourself a finance whiz kid, please hold your horses and spare your folks of your brilliance. If this performance turns out to be a fluke or you hit a bad patch, they will suffer and you will carry the guilt (which is a horrible feeling)
4. Face the facts – If your parents have unfortunately not been able to save enough for their retirement, do not target higher returns to cover for it. It could mean tough decisions for you and your parents in terms of lower standard of living (though assured) or help from you to maintain their current living standards.
5. Paper work and admin – Do not develop an intricate investment portfolio where your parents have to spend half their time filing documents, visiting banks and other such administrative tasks. I have done this in the past and made it difficult for my family.
6. Teach – Do not keep them in the dark about where their money is being invested. Teach or atleast educate your parents about the investment options you are selecting for them. Do not make it mumbo jumbo for them – When the market hits the top and retracts 5%, I will sell 6% and move to cash! Keep it simple and understandable. It will also ensure that you will pick some sensible options for them.
I will cover the following topics and more in the subsequent posts
Risk and return planning
asset allocation
Administrative tasks
Portfolio rebalancing and tracking
The subsequent posts will not be a how to guide which you would be able to use to pick the right investments and build a portfolio. I will only discuss my thought process on the above topics. In order to execute it, you may have to work on it yourself or find an honest advisor.
Final point: If you are completely new and have no clue where to invest for your parents, please invest the entire capital with a safe bank till you have figured it out with your own money. The last thing you want to do is to have your parents pay the cost of your learning how to invest (after spending all the money raising you :) )
Monday, August 31, 2009
Retirement planning - I
I recently received an email from anirudha asking my suggestions on retirement planning for his parents. The timing of his question is good as I have been working on this topic for the last few weeks for my family.
I will try to detail out my thoughts on the above topic in a series of posts. This is however my own idiosyncratic way of doing it. It may make sense for some of you to approach a licensed financial advisor (if they exist in India!) for advice.
Before I discuss about the above topic, let us look at the above issue by inverting the problem. We need to identify what we should absolutely not do when planning for retirement – especially for our parents
1. Chasing returns: Repeat after me – I will not put my parent’s or family’s funds at risk in pursuit of returns. Please read this a few times and memorize the statement. I cannot stress this enough. It would be completely stupid and irresponsible to chase an investment idea for extra returns with your parent’s money when they are depending on this capital to support themselves for the rest of their lives
2. Due diligence – Do not put your family’s money in any instrument without complete due diligence. This includes the obnoxious ULIP schemes sold by most banks and guaranteed return policy sold by friendly insurance agents to unsuspecting seniors. The agents in question are not targeting your parents out of malice. Most of them have good intentions, it’s just that they do not fully understand the product they are selling. So please avoid all such agents unless you are sure you are buying something worth it.
3. Be realistic – Do not assume returns in excess of 10-12% for a conservative, low risk portfolio. Even if you have made 30% returns in the past and consider yourself a finance whiz kid, please hold your horses and spare your folks of your brilliance. If this performance turns out to be a fluke or you hit a bad patch, they will suffer and you will carry the guilt (which is a horrible feeling)
4. Face the facts – If your parents have unfortunately not been able to save enough for their retirement, do not target higher returns to cover for it. It could mean tough decisions for you and your parents in terms of lower standard of living (though assured) or help from you to maintain their current living standards.
5. Paper work and admin – Do not develop an intricate investment portfolio where your parents have to spend half their time filing documents, visiting banks and other such administrative tasks. I have done this in the past and made it difficult for my family.
6. Teach – Do not keep them in the dark about where their money is being invested. Teach or atleast educate your parents about the investment options you are selecting for them. Do not make it mumbo jumbo for them – When the market hits the top and retracts 5%, I will sell 6% and move to cash! Keep it simple and understandable. It will also ensure that you will pick some sensible options for them.
I will cover the following topics and more in the subsequent posts
Risk and return planning
asset allocation
Administrative tasks
Portfolio rebalancing and tracking
The subsequent posts will not be a how to guide which you would be able to use to pick the right investments and build a portfolio. I will only discuss my thought process on the above topics. In order to execute it, you may have to work on it yourself or find an honest advisor.
Final point: If you are completely new and have no clue where to invest for your parents, please invest the entire capital with a safe bank till you have figured it out with your own money. The last thing you want to do is to have your parents pay the cost of your learning how to invest (after spending all the money raising you :) )
I will try to detail out my thoughts on the above topic in a series of posts. This is however my own idiosyncratic way of doing it. It may make sense for some of you to approach a licensed financial advisor (if they exist in India!) for advice.
Before I discuss about the above topic, let us look at the above issue by inverting the problem. We need to identify what we should absolutely not do when planning for retirement – especially for our parents
1. Chasing returns: Repeat after me – I will not put my parent’s or family’s funds at risk in pursuit of returns. Please read this a few times and memorize the statement. I cannot stress this enough. It would be completely stupid and irresponsible to chase an investment idea for extra returns with your parent’s money when they are depending on this capital to support themselves for the rest of their lives
2. Due diligence – Do not put your family’s money in any instrument without complete due diligence. This includes the obnoxious ULIP schemes sold by most banks and guaranteed return policy sold by friendly insurance agents to unsuspecting seniors. The agents in question are not targeting your parents out of malice. Most of them have good intentions, it’s just that they do not fully understand the product they are selling. So please avoid all such agents unless you are sure you are buying something worth it.
3. Be realistic – Do not assume returns in excess of 10-12% for a conservative, low risk portfolio. Even if you have made 30% returns in the past and consider yourself a finance whiz kid, please hold your horses and spare your folks of your brilliance. If this performance turns out to be a fluke or you hit a bad patch, they will suffer and you will carry the guilt (which is a horrible feeling)
4. Face the facts – If your parents have unfortunately not been able to save enough for their retirement, do not target higher returns to cover for it. It could mean tough decisions for you and your parents in terms of lower standard of living (though assured) or help from you to maintain their current living standards.
5. Paper work and admin – Do not develop an intricate investment portfolio where your parents have to spend half their time filing documents, visiting banks and other such administrative tasks. I have done this in the past and made it difficult for my family.
6. Teach – Do not keep them in the dark about where their money is being invested. Teach or atleast educate your parents about the investment options you are selecting for them. Do not make it mumbo jumbo for them – When the market hits the top and retracts 5%, I will sell 6% and move to cash! Keep it simple and understandable. It will also ensure that you will pick some sensible options for them.
I will cover the following topics and more in the subsequent posts
Risk and return planning
asset allocation
Administrative tasks
Portfolio rebalancing and tracking
The subsequent posts will not be a how to guide which you would be able to use to pick the right investments and build a portfolio. I will only discuss my thought process on the above topics. In order to execute it, you may have to work on it yourself or find an honest advisor.
Final point: If you are completely new and have no clue where to invest for your parents, please invest the entire capital with a safe bank till you have figured it out with your own money. The last thing you want to do is to have your parents pay the cost of your learning how to invest (after spending all the money raising you :) )
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Tracking sheet
I was recently asked to for a copy of the tracking sheet I mentioned in an earlier post. I have uploaded it in the google groups (see here). It is a very simple tracking sheet with intrinsic value for each stock noted in the sheet to prevent me from focussing too much on the current price or cost.
A few key points on how I use the tracking sheet
- I regularly compare the current price with my estimate of intrinsic value (column B). If the discount (column F) is 30% or more and I have confident about the company, I will add to the holding. Conversly if the stock sells above the intrinsic value, I will start selling.
- I tend to check the quarterly and annual reports to see if there are any reasons for me to update the intrinsic value of the company (for better or worse).
- My focus is to ensure that current value of the portfolio (B19) is at a discount of 30% or higher from the total intrinsic value (B18). This ensures that I am selling overvalued stocks and looking for or buying undervalued ideas. The idea is to ensure that the portfolio does well and there is an upside in the form of undervaluation.
- I also have dividend for each stock on the spreadsheet. I am not too focussed on it, though I like to track the value for each stock and for the portfolio as a whole.
I use the above spreadsheet to drive my buy/ sell or hold decisions and to anchor my thinking to the intrinsic value, rather than the cost or current price. As you can see, there is nothing fancy about the spreadsheet, its as dumb as it can get.
Disclaimer : Please do not read too much into the stocks listed on the spreadsheet. The above list may not be a true representation of my current holdings.
A few key points on how I use the tracking sheet
- I regularly compare the current price with my estimate of intrinsic value (column B). If the discount (column F) is 30% or more and I have confident about the company, I will add to the holding. Conversly if the stock sells above the intrinsic value, I will start selling.
- I tend to check the quarterly and annual reports to see if there are any reasons for me to update the intrinsic value of the company (for better or worse).
- My focus is to ensure that current value of the portfolio (B19) is at a discount of 30% or higher from the total intrinsic value (B18). This ensures that I am selling overvalued stocks and looking for or buying undervalued ideas. The idea is to ensure that the portfolio does well and there is an upside in the form of undervaluation.
- I also have dividend for each stock on the spreadsheet. I am not too focussed on it, though I like to track the value for each stock and for the portfolio as a whole.
I use the above spreadsheet to drive my buy/ sell or hold decisions and to anchor my thinking to the intrinsic value, rather than the cost or current price. As you can see, there is nothing fancy about the spreadsheet, its as dumb as it can get.
Disclaimer : Please do not read too much into the stocks listed on the spreadsheet. The above list may not be a true representation of my current holdings.
Tracking sheet
I was recently asked to for a copy of the tracking sheet I mentioned in an earlier post. I have uploaded it in the google groups (see here). It is a very simple tracking sheet with intrinsic value for each stock noted in the sheet to prevent me from focussing too much on the current price or cost.
A few key points on how I use the tracking sheet
- I regularly compare the current price with my estimate of intrinsic value (column B). If the discount (column F) is 30% or more and I have confident about the company, I will add to the holding. Conversly if the stock sells above the intrinsic value, I will start selling.
- I tend to check the quarterly and annual reports to see if there are any reasons for me to update the intrinsic value of the company (for better or worse).
- My focus is to ensure that current value of the portfolio (B19) is at a discount of 30% or higher from the total intrinsic value (B18). This ensures that I am selling overvalued stocks and looking for or buying undervalued ideas. The idea is to ensure that the portfolio does well and there is an upside in the form of undervaluation.
- I also have dividend for each stock on the spreadsheet. I am not too focussed on it, though I like to track the value for each stock and for the portfolio as a whole.
I use the above spreadsheet to drive my buy/ sell or hold decisions and to anchor my thinking to the intrinsic value, rather than the cost or current price. As you can see, there is nothing fancy about the spreadsheet, its as dumb as it can get.
Disclaimer : Please do not read too much into the stocks listed on the spreadsheet. The above list may not be a true representation of my current holdings.
A few key points on how I use the tracking sheet
- I regularly compare the current price with my estimate of intrinsic value (column B). If the discount (column F) is 30% or more and I have confident about the company, I will add to the holding. Conversly if the stock sells above the intrinsic value, I will start selling.
- I tend to check the quarterly and annual reports to see if there are any reasons for me to update the intrinsic value of the company (for better or worse).
- My focus is to ensure that current value of the portfolio (B19) is at a discount of 30% or higher from the total intrinsic value (B18). This ensures that I am selling overvalued stocks and looking for or buying undervalued ideas. The idea is to ensure that the portfolio does well and there is an upside in the form of undervaluation.
- I also have dividend for each stock on the spreadsheet. I am not too focussed on it, though I like to track the value for each stock and for the portfolio as a whole.
I use the above spreadsheet to drive my buy/ sell or hold decisions and to anchor my thinking to the intrinsic value, rather than the cost or current price. As you can see, there is nothing fancy about the spreadsheet, its as dumb as it can get.
Disclaimer : Please do not read too much into the stocks listed on the spreadsheet. The above list may not be a true representation of my current holdings.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Performance
There is one key point missing in this blog – My portfolio details and performance. The omission is by design and there are several reasons behind it.
I have written in the past on my reluctance on sharing my portfolio in detail, especially the performance. I have disclosed my portfolio in the past (see here) and it has more or less remain unchanged since then.
There are several reasons for not sharing my performance. The key reason for not sharing the performance, is that a public display would put pressure on me and would in turn impact my investing decisions. Investing is tough enough and I don’t want to make it any more tough for me.
The second reason for not displaying the performance is that I want the readers to follow my posts based on the strength of the ideas I present and not the performance of my portfolio. The soundness of idea – sensible and rational value investing – does not change based on whether I perform well or badly as an investor. There are some investors who are far superior to me in performance and practise a similar approach. The performance of these investors is a reflection of their superior skills.
In addition to the above reason, I can choose to put any numbers as there is no independent audit of these numbers. I do not want to create a situation where the readers are always wondering whether the numbers on the blog are real or imagonary.
As you can see in the sidebar, I also publish my posts on moneyvidya.com. This association is non financial and i was contacted by the moneyvidya team in past to be a member of their core blogger team. I have posted my stock ideas on the website in the past few months and thought of sharing a snapshot of the portfolio performance.
A few caveats before you read too much into it.
- The above stocks do not represent my portfolio. They represent a few of my ideas which I decided to post on the website.
- The above is an equal wieghted portfolio of the picks which is not the case in my personal portfolio.
- The portfolio performance may not be a true reflection of my personal portflio in future as I do not have idea of how to take a stock off this model portfolio when I decide to sell it (maybe the moneyvidya team will clarify that for me)
So why publish this portfolio
A few key points stand out.
This dummy ( pun intended :) ) portfolio has been in the top 10% for the last 10 months ( I don’t know how that is calculated though by the moneyvidya team). This in a way shows the validity of picking good stocks and holding on to them.
This dummy portfolio has beaten the index by around 20% during this period. This period is too short to reach a conclusion, but is interesting as typical value investors generally under perform bull market and out perform bear markets.
Finally, not matter what I try to claim, there is a certain amount of bragging involved too. The reason why the last few months have been more satisfying, is that I have been able to follow my convictions, ignore the doomsday predicitions and commit my personal capital to my ideas. That is more satisfying than the gains themselves. I expect this approach to work in the long term irrespective of short term market fluctuations.
I have written in the past on my reluctance on sharing my portfolio in detail, especially the performance. I have disclosed my portfolio in the past (see here) and it has more or less remain unchanged since then.
There are several reasons for not sharing my performance. The key reason for not sharing the performance, is that a public display would put pressure on me and would in turn impact my investing decisions. Investing is tough enough and I don’t want to make it any more tough for me.
The second reason for not displaying the performance is that I want the readers to follow my posts based on the strength of the ideas I present and not the performance of my portfolio. The soundness of idea – sensible and rational value investing – does not change based on whether I perform well or badly as an investor. There are some investors who are far superior to me in performance and practise a similar approach. The performance of these investors is a reflection of their superior skills.
In addition to the above reason, I can choose to put any numbers as there is no independent audit of these numbers. I do not want to create a situation where the readers are always wondering whether the numbers on the blog are real or imagonary.
As you can see in the sidebar, I also publish my posts on moneyvidya.com. This association is non financial and i was contacted by the moneyvidya team in past to be a member of their core blogger team. I have posted my stock ideas on the website in the past few months and thought of sharing a snapshot of the portfolio performance.
A few caveats before you read too much into it.- The above stocks do not represent my portfolio. They represent a few of my ideas which I decided to post on the website.
- The above is an equal wieghted portfolio of the picks which is not the case in my personal portfolio.
- The portfolio performance may not be a true reflection of my personal portflio in future as I do not have idea of how to take a stock off this model portfolio when I decide to sell it (maybe the moneyvidya team will clarify that for me)
So why publish this portfolio
A few key points stand out.
This dummy ( pun intended :) ) portfolio has been in the top 10% for the last 10 months ( I don’t know how that is calculated though by the moneyvidya team). This in a way shows the validity of picking good stocks and holding on to them.
This dummy portfolio has beaten the index by around 20% during this period. This period is too short to reach a conclusion, but is interesting as typical value investors generally under perform bull market and out perform bear markets.
Finally, not matter what I try to claim, there is a certain amount of bragging involved too. The reason why the last few months have been more satisfying, is that I have been able to follow my convictions, ignore the doomsday predicitions and commit my personal capital to my ideas. That is more satisfying than the gains themselves. I expect this approach to work in the long term irrespective of short term market fluctuations.
Performance
There is one key point missing in this blog – My portfolio details and performance. The omission is by design and there are several reasons behind it.
I have written in the past on my reluctance on sharing my portfolio in detail, especially the performance. I have disclosed my portfolio in the past (see here) and it has more or less remain unchanged since then.
There are several reasons for not sharing my performance. The key reason for not sharing the performance, is that a public display would put pressure on me and would in turn impact my investing decisions. Investing is tough enough and I don’t want to make it any more tough for me.
The second reason for not displaying the performance is that I want the readers to follow my posts based on the strength of the ideas I present and not the performance of my portfolio. The soundness of idea – sensible and rational value investing – does not change based on whether I perform well or badly as an investor. There are some investors who are far superior to me in performance and practise a similar approach. The performance of these investors is a reflection of their superior skills.
In addition to the above reason, I can choose to put any numbers as there is no independent audit of these numbers. I do not want to create a situation where the readers are always wondering whether the numbers on the blog are real or imagonary.
As you can see in the sidebar, I also publish my posts on moneyvidya.com. This association is non financial and i was contacted by the moneyvidya team in past to be a member of their core blogger team. I have posted my stock ideas on the website in the past few months and thought of sharing a snapshot of the portfolio performance.
A few caveats before you read too much into it.
- The above stocks do not represent my portfolio. They represent a few of my ideas which I decided to post on the website.
- The above is an equal wieghted portfolio of the picks which is not the case in my personal portfolio.
- The portfolio performance may not be a true reflection of my personal portflio in future as I do not have idea of how to take a stock off this model portfolio when I decide to sell it (maybe the moneyvidya team will clarify that for me)
So why publish this portfolio
A few key points stand out.
This dummy ( pun intended :) ) portfolio has been in the top 10% for the last 10 months ( I don’t know how that is calculated though by the moneyvidya team). This in a way shows the validity of picking good stocks and holding on to them.
This dummy portfolio has beaten the index by around 20% during this period. This period is too short to reach a conclusion, but is interesting as typical value investors generally under perform bull market and out perform bear markets.
Finally, not matter what I try to claim, there is a certain amount of bragging involved too. The reason why the last few months have been more satisfying, is that I have been able to follow my convictions, ignore the doomsday predicitions and commit my personal capital to my ideas. That is more satisfying than the gains themselves. I expect this approach to work in the long term irrespective of short term market fluctuations.
I have written in the past on my reluctance on sharing my portfolio in detail, especially the performance. I have disclosed my portfolio in the past (see here) and it has more or less remain unchanged since then.
There are several reasons for not sharing my performance. The key reason for not sharing the performance, is that a public display would put pressure on me and would in turn impact my investing decisions. Investing is tough enough and I don’t want to make it any more tough for me.
The second reason for not displaying the performance is that I want the readers to follow my posts based on the strength of the ideas I present and not the performance of my portfolio. The soundness of idea – sensible and rational value investing – does not change based on whether I perform well or badly as an investor. There are some investors who are far superior to me in performance and practise a similar approach. The performance of these investors is a reflection of their superior skills.
In addition to the above reason, I can choose to put any numbers as there is no independent audit of these numbers. I do not want to create a situation where the readers are always wondering whether the numbers on the blog are real or imagonary.
As you can see in the sidebar, I also publish my posts on moneyvidya.com. This association is non financial and i was contacted by the moneyvidya team in past to be a member of their core blogger team. I have posted my stock ideas on the website in the past few months and thought of sharing a snapshot of the portfolio performance.
A few caveats before you read too much into it.- The above stocks do not represent my portfolio. They represent a few of my ideas which I decided to post on the website.
- The above is an equal wieghted portfolio of the picks which is not the case in my personal portfolio.
- The portfolio performance may not be a true reflection of my personal portflio in future as I do not have idea of how to take a stock off this model portfolio when I decide to sell it (maybe the moneyvidya team will clarify that for me)
So why publish this portfolio
A few key points stand out.
This dummy ( pun intended :) ) portfolio has been in the top 10% for the last 10 months ( I don’t know how that is calculated though by the moneyvidya team). This in a way shows the validity of picking good stocks and holding on to them.
This dummy portfolio has beaten the index by around 20% during this period. This period is too short to reach a conclusion, but is interesting as typical value investors generally under perform bull market and out perform bear markets.
Finally, not matter what I try to claim, there is a certain amount of bragging involved too. The reason why the last few months have been more satisfying, is that I have been able to follow my convictions, ignore the doomsday predicitions and commit my personal capital to my ideas. That is more satisfying than the gains themselves. I expect this approach to work in the long term irrespective of short term market fluctuations.
Monday, August 17, 2009
When to sell ?
I recently received a comment from rajiv which is reproduced below
Rohit,
As a stock moves towards its intrinsic value, there is a temptation to exit a little before the final value is hit, especially if you have waited a long time for Mr. Market to come around.
I feel that as a value investor the sell decision is much tougher than the buy decision, because the buy decision usually comes with a big enough margin of safety. However, during the sale decision the market value may be stuck at Intrinsic Value minus 10%, making the investor quite jittery to sell.
I have been asked this question in a several different ways, but all essentially boil down to the point – when should one sell a stock ?
I agree with the point made by rajiv and several other readers – selling is more diffcult than buying. In addition, there is no clear cut formulae for selling. The process of selling is made even more diffcult by the various emotional and psychological factors involved in selling.
Emotional factors
Most the discussions and articles on investing rarely discuss emotions explicitly. I find that strange as anyone who has ever invested in the market can vouch for the emotional roller coaster. The rational aspect of selling is easy for a long term investor – sell when price crosses intrinsic value (or 10% below or above – take your pick of the number)
I have written on the above question earlier – see here. The is the rational way of deciding on when to sell.
Now this suggestion may have sounded irritating to some of you and rightly so. The reason this advice, though rational, does not sound great is due to the emotions involved in selling.
There are two situations in which one is selling – one has made great gains in the stock and wants to capture some of the gains. Selling at this point is driven by the fear of losing the gain, which is counterbalanced by the desire to hold on to a stock which has treated you well and also by the doubt that there may be more upside to it.
The other situation in which one sells a stock is when one has lost money on the stock and wants to get rid of that piece of !!@##. In this situation the decision is driven by disgust.
These emotions are quite powerful and not easy to manage
Ok, dude then what?
All these emotions are nothing new, right ? Even if you have felt these emotions earlier, it does not mean that you are managing them well.
A few of the readers and my friends have mentioned to me that I seem rational and cool headed. I wish !!. I am no different, atleast in most aspects. In case of investing, I have tried to manage my emotions as much as I can (manage and not master).
I maintain a spreadsheet of all my holding with the qty, intrinsic value estimate, current price and discount to the current price. At any point of time, when I am looking at my holding, I am looking at the instrinsic value and the discount to it. I ‘anchor’ myself to the instrinsic value. As a result if the stock is selling below the intrinsic value, I will continue to hold.
As the intrinsic value of the stock gets updated every quarter, I am not tied to a fixed value. If the business performs well, the intrinsic value goes up and so does the sell target. If the company performs badly, then the reverse happens.
So is this buy and hold ?
Buy and hold is most abused and misunderstood term (more on that in another post). My approach is not buy and hold, tops and bottom or any other term or title. The logic is simple – buy when something sells for less than intrinsic value, hold till it is below intrinsic value and sell when it is above it. Now if the intrinsic value grows faster than the price, I will continue to hold.
Where’s the catch ?
The catch is in getting the fundamentals and intrinsic value estimate wrong. If you get that wrong and refuse to change your opinion, then you are toast.
But you lose money when the market drops !!
Yes, that does happen. If the market drops, my portfolio will drop with the market. I have yet to figure out how to keep jumping in and out of stocks and still keep my sanity. There is so much chatter and noise in the market, that it is easy to go nuts. My way of keeping my sanity intact, has been to adopt the above approach.
Rohit,
As a stock moves towards its intrinsic value, there is a temptation to exit a little before the final value is hit, especially if you have waited a long time for Mr. Market to come around.
I feel that as a value investor the sell decision is much tougher than the buy decision, because the buy decision usually comes with a big enough margin of safety. However, during the sale decision the market value may be stuck at Intrinsic Value minus 10%, making the investor quite jittery to sell.
I have been asked this question in a several different ways, but all essentially boil down to the point – when should one sell a stock ?
I agree with the point made by rajiv and several other readers – selling is more diffcult than buying. In addition, there is no clear cut formulae for selling. The process of selling is made even more diffcult by the various emotional and psychological factors involved in selling.
Emotional factors
Most the discussions and articles on investing rarely discuss emotions explicitly. I find that strange as anyone who has ever invested in the market can vouch for the emotional roller coaster. The rational aspect of selling is easy for a long term investor – sell when price crosses intrinsic value (or 10% below or above – take your pick of the number)
I have written on the above question earlier – see here. The is the rational way of deciding on when to sell.
Now this suggestion may have sounded irritating to some of you and rightly so. The reason this advice, though rational, does not sound great is due to the emotions involved in selling.
There are two situations in which one is selling – one has made great gains in the stock and wants to capture some of the gains. Selling at this point is driven by the fear of losing the gain, which is counterbalanced by the desire to hold on to a stock which has treated you well and also by the doubt that there may be more upside to it.
The other situation in which one sells a stock is when one has lost money on the stock and wants to get rid of that piece of !!@##. In this situation the decision is driven by disgust.
These emotions are quite powerful and not easy to manage
Ok, dude then what?
All these emotions are nothing new, right ? Even if you have felt these emotions earlier, it does not mean that you are managing them well.
A few of the readers and my friends have mentioned to me that I seem rational and cool headed. I wish !!. I am no different, atleast in most aspects. In case of investing, I have tried to manage my emotions as much as I can (manage and not master).
I maintain a spreadsheet of all my holding with the qty, intrinsic value estimate, current price and discount to the current price. At any point of time, when I am looking at my holding, I am looking at the instrinsic value and the discount to it. I ‘anchor’ myself to the instrinsic value. As a result if the stock is selling below the intrinsic value, I will continue to hold.
As the intrinsic value of the stock gets updated every quarter, I am not tied to a fixed value. If the business performs well, the intrinsic value goes up and so does the sell target. If the company performs badly, then the reverse happens.
So is this buy and hold ?
Buy and hold is most abused and misunderstood term (more on that in another post). My approach is not buy and hold, tops and bottom or any other term or title. The logic is simple – buy when something sells for less than intrinsic value, hold till it is below intrinsic value and sell when it is above it. Now if the intrinsic value grows faster than the price, I will continue to hold.
Where’s the catch ?
The catch is in getting the fundamentals and intrinsic value estimate wrong. If you get that wrong and refuse to change your opinion, then you are toast.
But you lose money when the market drops !!
Yes, that does happen. If the market drops, my portfolio will drop with the market. I have yet to figure out how to keep jumping in and out of stocks and still keep my sanity. There is so much chatter and noise in the market, that it is easy to go nuts. My way of keeping my sanity intact, has been to adopt the above approach.
Is this the best way ? no I will not claim that. However as I have a day job, I would rather lose a percentage points, than lose my job and maybe my sanity. Finally, I have yet to find another approach which relies on a sensible and consistent logic and not on the opinion of others.
When to sell ?
I recently received a comment from rajiv which is reproduced below
Rohit,
As a stock moves towards its intrinsic value, there is a temptation to exit a little before the final value is hit, especially if you have waited a long time for Mr. Market to come around.
I feel that as a value investor the sell decision is much tougher than the buy decision, because the buy decision usually comes with a big enough margin of safety. However, during the sale decision the market value may be stuck at Intrinsic Value minus 10%, making the investor quite jittery to sell.
I have been asked this question in a several different ways, but all essentially boil down to the point – when should one sell a stock ?
I agree with the point made by rajiv and several other readers – selling is more diffcult than buying. In addition, there is no clear cut formulae for selling. The process of selling is made even more diffcult by the various emotional and psychological factors involved in selling.
Emotional factors
Most the discussions and articles on investing rarely discuss emotions explicitly. I find that strange as anyone who has ever invested in the market can vouch for the emotional roller coaster. The rational aspect of selling is easy for a long term investor – sell when price crosses intrinsic value (or 10% below or above – take your pick of the number)
I have written on the above question earlier – see here. The is the rational way of deciding on when to sell.
Now this suggestion may have sounded irritating to some of you and rightly so. The reason this advice, though rational, does not sound great is due to the emotions involved in selling.
There are two situations in which one is selling – one has made great gains in the stock and wants to capture some of the gains. Selling at this point is driven by the fear of losing the gain, which is counterbalanced by the desire to hold on to a stock which has treated you well and also by the doubt that there may be more upside to it.
The other situation in which one sells a stock is when one has lost money on the stock and wants to get rid of that piece of !!@##. In this situation the decision is driven by disgust.
These emotions are quite powerful and not easy to manage
Ok, dude then what?
All these emotions are nothing new, right ? Even if you have felt these emotions earlier, it does not mean that you are managing them well.
A few of the readers and my friends have mentioned to me that I seem rational and cool headed. I wish !!. I am no different, atleast in most aspects. In case of investing, I have tried to manage my emotions as much as I can (manage and not master).
I maintain a spreadsheet of all my holding with the qty, intrinsic value estimate, current price and discount to the current price. At any point of time, when I am looking at my holding, I am looking at the instrinsic value and the discount to it. I ‘anchor’ myself to the instrinsic value. As a result if the stock is selling below the intrinsic value, I will continue to hold.
As the intrinsic value of the stock gets updated every quarter, I am not tied to a fixed value. If the business performs well, the intrinsic value goes up and so does the sell target. If the company performs badly, then the reverse happens.
So is this buy and hold ?
Buy and hold is most abused and misunderstood term (more on that in another post). My approach is not buy and hold, tops and bottom or any other term or title. The logic is simple – buy when something sells for less than intrinsic value, hold till it is below intrinsic value and sell when it is above it. Now if the intrinsic value grows faster than the price, I will continue to hold.
Where’s the catch ?
The catch is in getting the fundamentals and intrinsic value estimate wrong. If you get that wrong and refuse to change your opinion, then you are toast.
But you lose money when the market drops !!
Yes, that does happen. If the market drops, my portfolio will drop with the market. I have yet to figure out how to keep jumping in and out of stocks and still keep my sanity. There is so much chatter and noise in the market, that it is easy to go nuts. My way of keeping my sanity intact, has been to adopt the above approach.
Rohit,
As a stock moves towards its intrinsic value, there is a temptation to exit a little before the final value is hit, especially if you have waited a long time for Mr. Market to come around.
I feel that as a value investor the sell decision is much tougher than the buy decision, because the buy decision usually comes with a big enough margin of safety. However, during the sale decision the market value may be stuck at Intrinsic Value minus 10%, making the investor quite jittery to sell.
I have been asked this question in a several different ways, but all essentially boil down to the point – when should one sell a stock ?
I agree with the point made by rajiv and several other readers – selling is more diffcult than buying. In addition, there is no clear cut formulae for selling. The process of selling is made even more diffcult by the various emotional and psychological factors involved in selling.
Emotional factors
Most the discussions and articles on investing rarely discuss emotions explicitly. I find that strange as anyone who has ever invested in the market can vouch for the emotional roller coaster. The rational aspect of selling is easy for a long term investor – sell when price crosses intrinsic value (or 10% below or above – take your pick of the number)
I have written on the above question earlier – see here. The is the rational way of deciding on when to sell.
Now this suggestion may have sounded irritating to some of you and rightly so. The reason this advice, though rational, does not sound great is due to the emotions involved in selling.
There are two situations in which one is selling – one has made great gains in the stock and wants to capture some of the gains. Selling at this point is driven by the fear of losing the gain, which is counterbalanced by the desire to hold on to a stock which has treated you well and also by the doubt that there may be more upside to it.
The other situation in which one sells a stock is when one has lost money on the stock and wants to get rid of that piece of !!@##. In this situation the decision is driven by disgust.
These emotions are quite powerful and not easy to manage
Ok, dude then what?
All these emotions are nothing new, right ? Even if you have felt these emotions earlier, it does not mean that you are managing them well.
A few of the readers and my friends have mentioned to me that I seem rational and cool headed. I wish !!. I am no different, atleast in most aspects. In case of investing, I have tried to manage my emotions as much as I can (manage and not master).
I maintain a spreadsheet of all my holding with the qty, intrinsic value estimate, current price and discount to the current price. At any point of time, when I am looking at my holding, I am looking at the instrinsic value and the discount to it. I ‘anchor’ myself to the instrinsic value. As a result if the stock is selling below the intrinsic value, I will continue to hold.
As the intrinsic value of the stock gets updated every quarter, I am not tied to a fixed value. If the business performs well, the intrinsic value goes up and so does the sell target. If the company performs badly, then the reverse happens.
So is this buy and hold ?
Buy and hold is most abused and misunderstood term (more on that in another post). My approach is not buy and hold, tops and bottom or any other term or title. The logic is simple – buy when something sells for less than intrinsic value, hold till it is below intrinsic value and sell when it is above it. Now if the intrinsic value grows faster than the price, I will continue to hold.
Where’s the catch ?
The catch is in getting the fundamentals and intrinsic value estimate wrong. If you get that wrong and refuse to change your opinion, then you are toast.
But you lose money when the market drops !!
Yes, that does happen. If the market drops, my portfolio will drop with the market. I have yet to figure out how to keep jumping in and out of stocks and still keep my sanity. There is so much chatter and noise in the market, that it is easy to go nuts. My way of keeping my sanity intact, has been to adopt the above approach.
Is this the best way ? no I will not claim that. However as I have a day job, I would rather lose a percentage points, than lose my job and maybe my sanity. Finally, I have yet to find another approach which relies on a sensible and consistent logic and not on the opinion of others.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Johnson & Johnson - part II
Part II of the analysis
Competitive analysis
The main competitors for the company are the other big pharma companies and the generic firms such as Ranbaxy, Sun etc. We can apply Michael porter’s five factor model to evaluate the company
Barrier to entry – All the segments of the company enjoy substantial entry barriers. The pharma and medical devices have formidable barriers in the form of patents and sales and marketing network. In addition any new drug or device requires substantial R&D expenses and infrastructure. The consumer segment has barriers in the form of Brands and distribution network
Supplier power – Moderate to low in this industry. Suppliers are mainly providers of basic chemicals or contract manufacturers. The value is derived from the IPR of the drug and not from the manufacturing.
Buyer power – Low in consumer goods. However in case of Pharma and the devices segments, national programs such as Medicare have a strong leverage and with escalating cost will attempt to drive down prices.
Substitute product – none
Rivalry – There is intense rivalry in the industry from other pharma majors who are attempting to develop a similar drug and especially from the generics where the price and profits drop by as much as 90% over the course of a few years as soon as the drug comes off a patent. In addition, the generic companies are constantly trying to challenge the patents too.
Management quality checklist
- Management compensation: The company has almost 215 Million outstanding options which would result in 2% dilution. The options do not appear to be excessive.
- Capital allocation record: Fairly good. The management has maintained an ROE in excess of 25%, low debt and a dividend payout of almost 40%. In addition, the management has been engaged in acquiring other pharma companies to pull gaps in its drug pipeline and added to it too.
- Shareholder communication: The shareholder disclosure is good with clear explanation of the benefits assumptions and IP R&D (in process R&D) calculations from the acquisitions.
- Accounting practice: The overall accounting seems to be conservative. However there are some areas of concern. For example – the company has assumed long term returns on plan assets of 9%. I think that is aggressive and could result in additional charges over the years. The IP R&D (in process R&D) charges do not appear to be excessive.
Valuation
The company has approximately 12 Bn of cash flow and is selling at around 13 times earnings. The company has shown a profit growth of almost 15% per annum with high degree of consistency. At the same time the company has maintained a high level of ROE during this period too. One cannot assume such a high level of profit growth in the future as some part of this has come from the increase in net margins. However with a conservative assumption of 6-7% growth, discount rate of 8% and CAP period of 10 yrs, intrinsic value can be estimated to be between 80-85 (PE of around 20).
The current valuation assumes a growth of 0 or worse and gives no value to the competitive advantage of the company. The company is currently selling at a 5 year low and appears to undervalued by comparative and absolute standards.
Conclusion
The company has performed well in the past in terms of fundamental performance. The sales and profits have grown at a double digit rate. In addition the company has a healthy drug pipeline at various stages of approval which could help in replacing the blockbuster drugs going off patent. The medical devices and consumer division provide stability to the earnings and help in reducing the risks of the pharma division.
The management has been a rational allocator of capital which is visible via the high dividend payout, above average ROE and sensible acquisitions. The company appears 20-30% undervalued compared to the intrinsic value which in turn can be expected to grow at 7-10% in the future.
A new addition: I have created a pdf version of the analysis. Please feel free to download and share with others
Competitive analysis
The main competitors for the company are the other big pharma companies and the generic firms such as Ranbaxy, Sun etc. We can apply Michael porter’s five factor model to evaluate the company
Barrier to entry – All the segments of the company enjoy substantial entry barriers. The pharma and medical devices have formidable barriers in the form of patents and sales and marketing network. In addition any new drug or device requires substantial R&D expenses and infrastructure. The consumer segment has barriers in the form of Brands and distribution network
Supplier power – Moderate to low in this industry. Suppliers are mainly providers of basic chemicals or contract manufacturers. The value is derived from the IPR of the drug and not from the manufacturing.
Buyer power – Low in consumer goods. However in case of Pharma and the devices segments, national programs such as Medicare have a strong leverage and with escalating cost will attempt to drive down prices.
Substitute product – none
Rivalry – There is intense rivalry in the industry from other pharma majors who are attempting to develop a similar drug and especially from the generics where the price and profits drop by as much as 90% over the course of a few years as soon as the drug comes off a patent. In addition, the generic companies are constantly trying to challenge the patents too.
Management quality checklist
- Management compensation: The company has almost 215 Million outstanding options which would result in 2% dilution. The options do not appear to be excessive.
- Capital allocation record: Fairly good. The management has maintained an ROE in excess of 25%, low debt and a dividend payout of almost 40%. In addition, the management has been engaged in acquiring other pharma companies to pull gaps in its drug pipeline and added to it too.
- Shareholder communication: The shareholder disclosure is good with clear explanation of the benefits assumptions and IP R&D (in process R&D) calculations from the acquisitions.
- Accounting practice: The overall accounting seems to be conservative. However there are some areas of concern. For example – the company has assumed long term returns on plan assets of 9%. I think that is aggressive and could result in additional charges over the years. The IP R&D (in process R&D) charges do not appear to be excessive.
Valuation
The company has approximately 12 Bn of cash flow and is selling at around 13 times earnings. The company has shown a profit growth of almost 15% per annum with high degree of consistency. At the same time the company has maintained a high level of ROE during this period too. One cannot assume such a high level of profit growth in the future as some part of this has come from the increase in net margins. However with a conservative assumption of 6-7% growth, discount rate of 8% and CAP period of 10 yrs, intrinsic value can be estimated to be between 80-85 (PE of around 20).
The current valuation assumes a growth of 0 or worse and gives no value to the competitive advantage of the company. The company is currently selling at a 5 year low and appears to undervalued by comparative and absolute standards.
Conclusion
The company has performed well in the past in terms of fundamental performance. The sales and profits have grown at a double digit rate. In addition the company has a healthy drug pipeline at various stages of approval which could help in replacing the blockbuster drugs going off patent. The medical devices and consumer division provide stability to the earnings and help in reducing the risks of the pharma division.
The management has been a rational allocator of capital which is visible via the high dividend payout, above average ROE and sensible acquisitions. The company appears 20-30% undervalued compared to the intrinsic value which in turn can be expected to grow at 7-10% in the future.
A new addition: I have created a pdf version of the analysis. Please feel free to download and share with others
Johnson & Johnson - part II
Part II of the analysis
Competitive analysis
The main competitors for the company are the other big pharma companies and the generic firms such as Ranbaxy, Sun etc. We can apply Michael porter’s five factor model to evaluate the company
Barrier to entry – All the segments of the company enjoy substantial entry barriers. The pharma and medical devices have formidable barriers in the form of patents and sales and marketing network. In addition any new drug or device requires substantial R&D expenses and infrastructure. The consumer segment has barriers in the form of Brands and distribution network
Supplier power – Moderate to low in this industry. Suppliers are mainly providers of basic chemicals or contract manufacturers. The value is derived from the IPR of the drug and not from the manufacturing.
Buyer power – Low in consumer goods. However in case of Pharma and the devices segments, national programs such as Medicare have a strong leverage and with escalating cost will attempt to drive down prices.
Substitute product – none
Rivalry – There is intense rivalry in the industry from other pharma majors who are attempting to develop a similar drug and especially from the generics where the price and profits drop by as much as 90% over the course of a few years as soon as the drug comes off a patent. In addition, the generic companies are constantly trying to challenge the patents too.
Management quality checklist
- Management compensation: The company has almost 215 Million outstanding options which would result in 2% dilution. The options do not appear to be excessive.
- Capital allocation record: Fairly good. The management has maintained an ROE in excess of 25%, low debt and a dividend payout of almost 40%. In addition, the management has been engaged in acquiring other pharma companies to pull gaps in its drug pipeline and added to it too.
- Shareholder communication: The shareholder disclosure is good with clear explanation of the benefits assumptions and IP R&D (in process R&D) calculations from the acquisitions.
- Accounting practice: The overall accounting seems to be conservative. However there are some areas of concern. For example – the company has assumed long term returns on plan assets of 9%. I think that is aggressive and could result in additional charges over the years. The IP R&D (in process R&D) charges do not appear to be excessive.
Valuation
The company has approximately 12 Bn of cash flow and is selling at around 13 times earnings. The company has shown a profit growth of almost 15% per annum with high degree of consistency. At the same time the company has maintained a high level of ROE during this period too. One cannot assume such a high level of profit growth in the future as some part of this has come from the increase in net margins. However with a conservative assumption of 6-7% growth, discount rate of 8% and CAP period of 10 yrs, intrinsic value can be estimated to be between 80-85 (PE of around 20).
The current valuation assumes a growth of 0 or worse and gives no value to the competitive advantage of the company. The company is currently selling at a 5 year low and appears to undervalued by comparative and absolute standards.
Conclusion
The company has performed well in the past in terms of fundamental performance. The sales and profits have grown at a double digit rate. In addition the company has a healthy drug pipeline at various stages of approval which could help in replacing the blockbuster drugs going off patent. The medical devices and consumer division provide stability to the earnings and help in reducing the risks of the pharma division.
The management has been a rational allocator of capital which is visible via the high dividend payout, above average ROE and sensible acquisitions. The company appears 20-30% undervalued compared to the intrinsic value which in turn can be expected to grow at 7-10% in the future.
A new addition: I have created a pdf version of the analysis. Please feel free to download and share with others
Competitive analysis
The main competitors for the company are the other big pharma companies and the generic firms such as Ranbaxy, Sun etc. We can apply Michael porter’s five factor model to evaluate the company
Barrier to entry – All the segments of the company enjoy substantial entry barriers. The pharma and medical devices have formidable barriers in the form of patents and sales and marketing network. In addition any new drug or device requires substantial R&D expenses and infrastructure. The consumer segment has barriers in the form of Brands and distribution network
Supplier power – Moderate to low in this industry. Suppliers are mainly providers of basic chemicals or contract manufacturers. The value is derived from the IPR of the drug and not from the manufacturing.
Buyer power – Low in consumer goods. However in case of Pharma and the devices segments, national programs such as Medicare have a strong leverage and with escalating cost will attempt to drive down prices.
Substitute product – none
Rivalry – There is intense rivalry in the industry from other pharma majors who are attempting to develop a similar drug and especially from the generics where the price and profits drop by as much as 90% over the course of a few years as soon as the drug comes off a patent. In addition, the generic companies are constantly trying to challenge the patents too.
Management quality checklist
- Management compensation: The company has almost 215 Million outstanding options which would result in 2% dilution. The options do not appear to be excessive.
- Capital allocation record: Fairly good. The management has maintained an ROE in excess of 25%, low debt and a dividend payout of almost 40%. In addition, the management has been engaged in acquiring other pharma companies to pull gaps in its drug pipeline and added to it too.
- Shareholder communication: The shareholder disclosure is good with clear explanation of the benefits assumptions and IP R&D (in process R&D) calculations from the acquisitions.
- Accounting practice: The overall accounting seems to be conservative. However there are some areas of concern. For example – the company has assumed long term returns on plan assets of 9%. I think that is aggressive and could result in additional charges over the years. The IP R&D (in process R&D) charges do not appear to be excessive.
Valuation
The company has approximately 12 Bn of cash flow and is selling at around 13 times earnings. The company has shown a profit growth of almost 15% per annum with high degree of consistency. At the same time the company has maintained a high level of ROE during this period too. One cannot assume such a high level of profit growth in the future as some part of this has come from the increase in net margins. However with a conservative assumption of 6-7% growth, discount rate of 8% and CAP period of 10 yrs, intrinsic value can be estimated to be between 80-85 (PE of around 20).
The current valuation assumes a growth of 0 or worse and gives no value to the competitive advantage of the company. The company is currently selling at a 5 year low and appears to undervalued by comparative and absolute standards.
Conclusion
The company has performed well in the past in terms of fundamental performance. The sales and profits have grown at a double digit rate. In addition the company has a healthy drug pipeline at various stages of approval which could help in replacing the blockbuster drugs going off patent. The medical devices and consumer division provide stability to the earnings and help in reducing the risks of the pharma division.
The management has been a rational allocator of capital which is visible via the high dividend payout, above average ROE and sensible acquisitions. The company appears 20-30% undervalued compared to the intrinsic value which in turn can be expected to grow at 7-10% in the future.
A new addition: I have created a pdf version of the analysis. Please feel free to download and share with others
Friday, August 07, 2009
Investment idea - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
About
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) is a US based pharma and healthcare company. The company has three primary business segments – consumer products, pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
The company had a revenue of 63 billion USD in 2008. The Consumer segment includes a broad range of products used in the baby care, skin care, oral care, wound care and women’s health care fields, as well as nutritional and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products. The Pharmaceutical segment includes products in the following therapeutic areas: anti-infective, antipsychotic, cardiovascular, contraceptive, dermatology, gastrointestinal,hematology, immunology, neurology, oncology etc . The Medical Devices and Diagnostics segment includes a broad range of products such as Cordis’ circulatory disease management products; DePuy’s orthopaedic products; Ethicon’s surgical care products ; Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics’ professional diagnostic products and Vistakon’s disposable contact lenses.
The company operates globaly in a predominantly decentralised structure with over 118000 employees.
Financials
The consumer segment had a global sale of 16 Billion in 2008 with a 10.8% growth. The company also acquired the consumer healthcare business of pfizer in 2007. The consumer segment had an operating profit of 16.7%, an increase of 1% over 2007.
The pharma segment had a sale of 24.6 billion in 2008, a decrease of around 1.2% over 2007. This business saw an increase in operating profit from 26.3% to 31% mainly due to writedowns in 2007.
The medical devices segment had sales of 23.1 billion with an increase of 6.4% over 2007. The operating profit increased from 22.3% to 31.2% in 2008 partly due to some litigation settlements in 2008 and some restructuring charges in 2007.
The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment (around 10% of sales or higher) during this period. This efficiency of this investment is evident from the drug pipeline of the company which consists of around 18 drugs filed or approved and almost 25 in the stage III trails.
On an aggregate basis, the company has has a very steady performance in the last 10 years and more. The ROE has ranged between 26-30% during this period. This improvement has been driven by an improvement in net margins from around 15% to 20%. The various asset ratios such as working capital turns has improved from low teens to around 30. The fixed asset turns has improved during this period too.
The company has maintained a healthy cash flow during this period and has had a dividend payout of almost 40% during this period. The balance cash has been used to pay off the small amounts of debt, invest in assets and make targeted accquisitions.The company is a zero (net basis) debt company and has a cash flow rate in excess of 10 billion per annum.
Positives
JNJ has several key positives as a business and over other pharma companies
- The company derieves around 30-32% of its revenue and around 40-45% of operating profits from the pharma business segment. Although the company faces the risk of its top performing drugs going off patent, the company has a healthy pipeline to manage this risk
- The company has a medical devices division which does not face the generic or patent risk of the pharma division and is fairly profitable.
- The company has a consumer products division with strong brands and an extensive distribution network which act as a hedge to the other segments.
- The company has a deep moat in all its business segments and sustaniable competitive advantage.
- The company has a decentralised operating structure with 250 operating companies across 57 countries across the the globe.
- The company has strong balance sheet and consistent cash flows. The net profit and cash flow has grown at around 16% per annum for the last 10 years. In addition the company has improved its ROE and other asset rations
Risks
The company faces the following key risks
- Several key pharma brands (in excess of 1 bn sales) such as risperdal and Topamax have lost patent protection in the recent and will face drop in sales and profits due to generics. Success of new drugs is not a given and only a few drugs in the pipeline may replace these blockbusters. In addition, there may be short to medium term dip before the new drugs replace the loss in sales.
- The global slowdown is likely to impact the topline and bottom line growth for the next 2-3 years
- The US market accounts for almost 14 bn in sales for the pharma division and 10Bn in sales for the medical devices division. Although I have not been able to find the numbers. the profitability of these divisions in the US is fairly high. This may be at risk due to the health care reforms in the US.
- The recession in the developed markets which account for major part of the sales and profit could keep the topline and bottom line subdued for the next few years.
- The company faces litigation risks related to product marketing, pricing, product side effects and patent issues. These risks are detailed over 3 pages of the annual report and are not easily quantifiable. The company has accrued liabilities against these risk and has stated that these risks in aggregate will not have a material effect on the financials.
next post : competitive analysis, management quality, valuation and conclusion
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) is a US based pharma and healthcare company. The company has three primary business segments – consumer products, pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
The company had a revenue of 63 billion USD in 2008. The Consumer segment includes a broad range of products used in the baby care, skin care, oral care, wound care and women’s health care fields, as well as nutritional and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products. The Pharmaceutical segment includes products in the following therapeutic areas: anti-infective, antipsychotic, cardiovascular, contraceptive, dermatology, gastrointestinal,hematology, immunology, neurology, oncology etc . The Medical Devices and Diagnostics segment includes a broad range of products such as Cordis’ circulatory disease management products; DePuy’s orthopaedic products; Ethicon’s surgical care products ; Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics’ professional diagnostic products and Vistakon’s disposable contact lenses.
The company operates globaly in a predominantly decentralised structure with over 118000 employees.
Financials
The consumer segment had a global sale of 16 Billion in 2008 with a 10.8% growth. The company also acquired the consumer healthcare business of pfizer in 2007. The consumer segment had an operating profit of 16.7%, an increase of 1% over 2007.
The pharma segment had a sale of 24.6 billion in 2008, a decrease of around 1.2% over 2007. This business saw an increase in operating profit from 26.3% to 31% mainly due to writedowns in 2007.
The medical devices segment had sales of 23.1 billion with an increase of 6.4% over 2007. The operating profit increased from 22.3% to 31.2% in 2008 partly due to some litigation settlements in 2008 and some restructuring charges in 2007.
The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment (around 10% of sales or higher) during this period. This efficiency of this investment is evident from the drug pipeline of the company which consists of around 18 drugs filed or approved and almost 25 in the stage III trails.
On an aggregate basis, the company has has a very steady performance in the last 10 years and more. The ROE has ranged between 26-30% during this period. This improvement has been driven by an improvement in net margins from around 15% to 20%. The various asset ratios such as working capital turns has improved from low teens to around 30. The fixed asset turns has improved during this period too.
The company has maintained a healthy cash flow during this period and has had a dividend payout of almost 40% during this period. The balance cash has been used to pay off the small amounts of debt, invest in assets and make targeted accquisitions.The company is a zero (net basis) debt company and has a cash flow rate in excess of 10 billion per annum.
Positives
JNJ has several key positives as a business and over other pharma companies
- The company derieves around 30-32% of its revenue and around 40-45% of operating profits from the pharma business segment. Although the company faces the risk of its top performing drugs going off patent, the company has a healthy pipeline to manage this risk
- The company has a medical devices division which does not face the generic or patent risk of the pharma division and is fairly profitable.
- The company has a consumer products division with strong brands and an extensive distribution network which act as a hedge to the other segments.
- The company has a deep moat in all its business segments and sustaniable competitive advantage.
- The company has a decentralised operating structure with 250 operating companies across 57 countries across the the globe.
- The company has strong balance sheet and consistent cash flows. The net profit and cash flow has grown at around 16% per annum for the last 10 years. In addition the company has improved its ROE and other asset rations
Risks
The company faces the following key risks
- Several key pharma brands (in excess of 1 bn sales) such as risperdal and Topamax have lost patent protection in the recent and will face drop in sales and profits due to generics. Success of new drugs is not a given and only a few drugs in the pipeline may replace these blockbusters. In addition, there may be short to medium term dip before the new drugs replace the loss in sales.
- The global slowdown is likely to impact the topline and bottom line growth for the next 2-3 years
- The US market accounts for almost 14 bn in sales for the pharma division and 10Bn in sales for the medical devices division. Although I have not been able to find the numbers. the profitability of these divisions in the US is fairly high. This may be at risk due to the health care reforms in the US.
- The recession in the developed markets which account for major part of the sales and profit could keep the topline and bottom line subdued for the next few years.
- The company faces litigation risks related to product marketing, pricing, product side effects and patent issues. These risks are detailed over 3 pages of the annual report and are not easily quantifiable. The company has accrued liabilities against these risk and has stated that these risks in aggregate will not have a material effect on the financials.
next post : competitive analysis, management quality, valuation and conclusion
Investment idea - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
About
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) is a US based pharma and healthcare company. The company has three primary business segments – consumer products, pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
The company had a revenue of 63 billion USD in 2008. The Consumer segment includes a broad range of products used in the baby care, skin care, oral care, wound care and women’s health care fields, as well as nutritional and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products. The Pharmaceutical segment includes products in the following therapeutic areas: anti-infective, antipsychotic, cardiovascular, contraceptive, dermatology, gastrointestinal,hematology, immunology, neurology, oncology etc . The Medical Devices and Diagnostics segment includes a broad range of products such as Cordis’ circulatory disease management products; DePuy’s orthopaedic products; Ethicon’s surgical care products ; Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics’ professional diagnostic products and Vistakon’s disposable contact lenses.
The company operates globaly in a predominantly decentralised structure with over 118000 employees.
Financials
The consumer segment had a global sale of 16 Billion in 2008 with a 10.8% growth. The company also acquired the consumer healthcare business of pfizer in 2007. The consumer segment had an operating profit of 16.7%, an increase of 1% over 2007.
The pharma segment had a sale of 24.6 billion in 2008, a decrease of around 1.2% over 2007. This business saw an increase in operating profit from 26.3% to 31% mainly due to writedowns in 2007.
The medical devices segment had sales of 23.1 billion with an increase of 6.4% over 2007. The operating profit increased from 22.3% to 31.2% in 2008 partly due to some litigation settlements in 2008 and some restructuring charges in 2007.
The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment (around 10% of sales or higher) during this period. This efficiency of this investment is evident from the drug pipeline of the company which consists of around 18 drugs filed or approved and almost 25 in the stage III trails.
On an aggregate basis, the company has has a very steady performance in the last 10 years and more. The ROE has ranged between 26-30% during this period. This improvement has been driven by an improvement in net margins from around 15% to 20%. The various asset ratios such as working capital turns has improved from low teens to around 30. The fixed asset turns has improved during this period too.
The company has maintained a healthy cash flow during this period and has had a dividend payout of almost 40% during this period. The balance cash has been used to pay off the small amounts of debt, invest in assets and make targeted accquisitions.The company is a zero (net basis) debt company and has a cash flow rate in excess of 10 billion per annum.
Positives
JNJ has several key positives as a business and over other pharma companies
- The company derieves around 30-32% of its revenue and around 40-45% of operating profits from the pharma business segment. Although the company faces the risk of its top performing drugs going off patent, the company has a healthy pipeline to manage this risk
- The company has a medical devices division which does not face the generic or patent risk of the pharma division and is fairly profitable.
- The company has a consumer products division with strong brands and an extensive distribution network which act as a hedge to the other segments.
- The company has a deep moat in all its business segments and sustaniable competitive advantage.
- The company has a decentralised operating structure with 250 operating companies across 57 countries across the the globe.
- The company has strong balance sheet and consistent cash flows. The net profit and cash flow has grown at around 16% per annum for the last 10 years. In addition the company has improved its ROE and other asset rations
Risks
The company faces the following key risks
- Several key pharma brands (in excess of 1 bn sales) such as risperdal and Topamax have lost patent protection in the recent and will face drop in sales and profits due to generics. Success of new drugs is not a given and only a few drugs in the pipeline may replace these blockbusters. In addition, there may be short to medium term dip before the new drugs replace the loss in sales.
- The global slowdown is likely to impact the topline and bottom line growth for the next 2-3 years
- The US market accounts for almost 14 bn in sales for the pharma division and 10Bn in sales for the medical devices division. Although I have not been able to find the numbers. the profitability of these divisions in the US is fairly high. This may be at risk due to the health care reforms in the US.
- The recession in the developed markets which account for major part of the sales and profit could keep the topline and bottom line subdued for the next few years.
- The company faces litigation risks related to product marketing, pricing, product side effects and patent issues. These risks are detailed over 3 pages of the annual report and are not easily quantifiable. The company has accrued liabilities against these risk and has stated that these risks in aggregate will not have a material effect on the financials.
next post : competitive analysis, management quality, valuation and conclusion
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) is a US based pharma and healthcare company. The company has three primary business segments – consumer products, pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
The company had a revenue of 63 billion USD in 2008. The Consumer segment includes a broad range of products used in the baby care, skin care, oral care, wound care and women’s health care fields, as well as nutritional and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products. The Pharmaceutical segment includes products in the following therapeutic areas: anti-infective, antipsychotic, cardiovascular, contraceptive, dermatology, gastrointestinal,hematology, immunology, neurology, oncology etc . The Medical Devices and Diagnostics segment includes a broad range of products such as Cordis’ circulatory disease management products; DePuy’s orthopaedic products; Ethicon’s surgical care products ; Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics’ professional diagnostic products and Vistakon’s disposable contact lenses.
The company operates globaly in a predominantly decentralised structure with over 118000 employees.
Financials
The consumer segment had a global sale of 16 Billion in 2008 with a 10.8% growth. The company also acquired the consumer healthcare business of pfizer in 2007. The consumer segment had an operating profit of 16.7%, an increase of 1% over 2007.
The pharma segment had a sale of 24.6 billion in 2008, a decrease of around 1.2% over 2007. This business saw an increase in operating profit from 26.3% to 31% mainly due to writedowns in 2007.
The medical devices segment had sales of 23.1 billion with an increase of 6.4% over 2007. The operating profit increased from 22.3% to 31.2% in 2008 partly due to some litigation settlements in 2008 and some restructuring charges in 2007.
The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment (around 10% of sales or higher) during this period. This efficiency of this investment is evident from the drug pipeline of the company which consists of around 18 drugs filed or approved and almost 25 in the stage III trails.
On an aggregate basis, the company has has a very steady performance in the last 10 years and more. The ROE has ranged between 26-30% during this period. This improvement has been driven by an improvement in net margins from around 15% to 20%. The various asset ratios such as working capital turns has improved from low teens to around 30. The fixed asset turns has improved during this period too.
The company has maintained a healthy cash flow during this period and has had a dividend payout of almost 40% during this period. The balance cash has been used to pay off the small amounts of debt, invest in assets and make targeted accquisitions.The company is a zero (net basis) debt company and has a cash flow rate in excess of 10 billion per annum.
Positives
JNJ has several key positives as a business and over other pharma companies
- The company derieves around 30-32% of its revenue and around 40-45% of operating profits from the pharma business segment. Although the company faces the risk of its top performing drugs going off patent, the company has a healthy pipeline to manage this risk
- The company has a medical devices division which does not face the generic or patent risk of the pharma division and is fairly profitable.
- The company has a consumer products division with strong brands and an extensive distribution network which act as a hedge to the other segments.
- The company has a deep moat in all its business segments and sustaniable competitive advantage.
- The company has a decentralised operating structure with 250 operating companies across 57 countries across the the globe.
- The company has strong balance sheet and consistent cash flows. The net profit and cash flow has grown at around 16% per annum for the last 10 years. In addition the company has improved its ROE and other asset rations
Risks
The company faces the following key risks
- Several key pharma brands (in excess of 1 bn sales) such as risperdal and Topamax have lost patent protection in the recent and will face drop in sales and profits due to generics. Success of new drugs is not a given and only a few drugs in the pipeline may replace these blockbusters. In addition, there may be short to medium term dip before the new drugs replace the loss in sales.
- The global slowdown is likely to impact the topline and bottom line growth for the next 2-3 years
- The US market accounts for almost 14 bn in sales for the pharma division and 10Bn in sales for the medical devices division. Although I have not been able to find the numbers. the profitability of these divisions in the US is fairly high. This may be at risk due to the health care reforms in the US.
- The recession in the developed markets which account for major part of the sales and profit could keep the topline and bottom line subdued for the next few years.
- The company faces litigation risks related to product marketing, pricing, product side effects and patent issues. These risks are detailed over 3 pages of the annual report and are not easily quantifiable. The company has accrued liabilities against these risk and has stated that these risks in aggregate will not have a material effect on the financials.
next post : competitive analysis, management quality, valuation and conclusion
Saturday, August 01, 2009
Results review – LMW, Ashok leyland and Hinduja global
Lakshmi machine works
I have written on LMW earlier here. The domestic and export demand for the company has collapsed since then. The company is now running at 40% of its capacity. The company reported a 60% drop in topline and 76% drop in profits. Time to panic and sell the stock ? Not quite.
The market was pricing much worse earlier. For a period of few months, the company sold for almost its cash holdings without any value being given to any other assets.Now that the market has realised that the company is not headed for extinction, it has revalued the company to a certain extent.
At the same time, I do not have any illusions that the fundamentals of the company will suddenly turn completely. The company is in for some tough times till the demand returns back to the pre-crisis levels and accordingly the profit peak achieved over the last few years could take some time too.
However if one looks at the annual report, one can see that the company is doing a great job of managing the downturn. The company does not require much capex and has reduced the working capital too. The cash and equivalents are now up at almost 700 crs which comes to around 60% of the market. I personally don’t think the company is going bankrupt and hence plan to hold on.
Ashok leyland
I have written about the company earlier here and here. The company reported an almost 50% drop in sales and 80%+ drop in profits ( I like companies whose sales are dropping off the cliff :) ).
If you are interested in the company, I would encourage you to see the latest presentation by the company here. The company has taken pains to detail out the problems and how they are coping with the recession.
Ashok leyland has also been hit severly by the downturn and credit crunch. Although the demand is now stabilizing, the current quarter and maybe the next will continue to be hit due to inventory liquidation. The company books sales when it sells to the dealers. The slowdown in the demand has resulted in high inventory with the dealers which needs to be worked out. The only worrying factor in the results is the loss of market shares in HCV, especially in the mid segment.
The company’s results will continue to be hit for atleast a few quarters due to the slowdown and due to the depreciation cost of the capex which was put in place for the expected demand last year. As in LMW, I don’t think the company is going bankrupt and hence plan to hold on. At the same time Ashok leyland is not as cheap as LMW
Hinduja global
I have written on Hinduja global earlier (see here and here). My main concern was the high cash holding of the company which is being maintained in foreign sub. The company has since then tried to clarify the above fact (details of the cash holding are provided in the last quarter’s result).
In addition the company came out with a higher dividend and fairly good results in Mar 2009. As a result the stock has almost doubled since then. In the current quarter, the company reported a topline growth of 30% and bottom line growth of almost 80%. The company continues to perform well. My hesitation in building a large position still continue to be the corporate governance issues, even though the company is cheap by objective standards.
Gujarat gas
I have written on gujarat gas earlier (see here ). The company reported Q2 numbers and i am fairly satisfied with the numbers. The company has been facing a supply issue due to lower level of supplies from two long term sources.
The Q1 results were hit considerably due to the above shortage. The company has been able to secure some supply in the spot market to meet some of the demand. The topline grew by around 10%, though the volume dropped by around 5% during the same period.The bottom line grew by more than 10% if one eliminates the one time gain in last year’s result.
The company is doing quite well and I expect the profit growth to improve once additional sources of supply are tied up. Finally, the company has declared a 1:1 bonus issue. This does not change anything fundamentally other than higher dividends in the future. However the market has reacted positively and pushed up the stock price.
I have written on LMW earlier here. The domestic and export demand for the company has collapsed since then. The company is now running at 40% of its capacity. The company reported a 60% drop in topline and 76% drop in profits. Time to panic and sell the stock ? Not quite.
The market was pricing much worse earlier. For a period of few months, the company sold for almost its cash holdings without any value being given to any other assets.Now that the market has realised that the company is not headed for extinction, it has revalued the company to a certain extent.
At the same time, I do not have any illusions that the fundamentals of the company will suddenly turn completely. The company is in for some tough times till the demand returns back to the pre-crisis levels and accordingly the profit peak achieved over the last few years could take some time too.
However if one looks at the annual report, one can see that the company is doing a great job of managing the downturn. The company does not require much capex and has reduced the working capital too. The cash and equivalents are now up at almost 700 crs which comes to around 60% of the market. I personally don’t think the company is going bankrupt and hence plan to hold on.
Ashok leyland
I have written about the company earlier here and here. The company reported an almost 50% drop in sales and 80%+ drop in profits ( I like companies whose sales are dropping off the cliff :) ).
If you are interested in the company, I would encourage you to see the latest presentation by the company here. The company has taken pains to detail out the problems and how they are coping with the recession.
Ashok leyland has also been hit severly by the downturn and credit crunch. Although the demand is now stabilizing, the current quarter and maybe the next will continue to be hit due to inventory liquidation. The company books sales when it sells to the dealers. The slowdown in the demand has resulted in high inventory with the dealers which needs to be worked out. The only worrying factor in the results is the loss of market shares in HCV, especially in the mid segment.
The company’s results will continue to be hit for atleast a few quarters due to the slowdown and due to the depreciation cost of the capex which was put in place for the expected demand last year. As in LMW, I don’t think the company is going bankrupt and hence plan to hold on. At the same time Ashok leyland is not as cheap as LMW
Hinduja global
I have written on Hinduja global earlier (see here and here). My main concern was the high cash holding of the company which is being maintained in foreign sub. The company has since then tried to clarify the above fact (details of the cash holding are provided in the last quarter’s result).
In addition the company came out with a higher dividend and fairly good results in Mar 2009. As a result the stock has almost doubled since then. In the current quarter, the company reported a topline growth of 30% and bottom line growth of almost 80%. The company continues to perform well. My hesitation in building a large position still continue to be the corporate governance issues, even though the company is cheap by objective standards.
Gujarat gas
I have written on gujarat gas earlier (see here ). The company reported Q2 numbers and i am fairly satisfied with the numbers. The company has been facing a supply issue due to lower level of supplies from two long term sources.
The Q1 results were hit considerably due to the above shortage. The company has been able to secure some supply in the spot market to meet some of the demand. The topline grew by around 10%, though the volume dropped by around 5% during the same period.The bottom line grew by more than 10% if one eliminates the one time gain in last year’s result.
The company is doing quite well and I expect the profit growth to improve once additional sources of supply are tied up. Finally, the company has declared a 1:1 bonus issue. This does not change anything fundamentally other than higher dividends in the future. However the market has reacted positively and pushed up the stock price.
Results review – LMW, Ashok leyland and Hinduja global
Lakshmi machine works
I have written on LMW earlier here. The domestic and export demand for the company has collapsed since then. The company is now running at 40% of its capacity. The company reported a 60% drop in topline and 76% drop in profits. Time to panic and sell the stock ? Not quite.
The market was pricing much worse earlier. For a period of few months, the company sold for almost its cash holdings without any value being given to any other assets.Now that the market has realised that the company is not headed for extinction, it has revalued the company to a certain extent.
At the same time, I do not have any illusions that the fundamentals of the company will suddenly turn completely. The company is in for some tough times till the demand returns back to the pre-crisis levels and accordingly the profit peak achieved over the last few years could take some time too.
However if one looks at the annual report, one can see that the company is doing a great job of managing the downturn. The company does not require much capex and has reduced the working capital too. The cash and equivalents are now up at almost 700 crs which comes to around 60% of the market. I personally don’t think the company is going bankrupt and hence plan to hold on.
Ashok leyland
I have written about the company earlier here and here. The company reported an almost 50% drop in sales and 80%+ drop in profits ( I like companies whose sales are dropping off the cliff :) ).
If you are interested in the company, I would encourage you to see the latest presentation by the company here. The company has taken pains to detail out the problems and how they are coping with the recession.
Ashok leyland has also been hit severly by the downturn and credit crunch. Although the demand is now stabilizing, the current quarter and maybe the next will continue to be hit due to inventory liquidation. The company books sales when it sells to the dealers. The slowdown in the demand has resulted in high inventory with the dealers which needs to be worked out. The only worrying factor in the results is the loss of market shares in HCV, especially in the mid segment.
The company’s results will continue to be hit for atleast a few quarters due to the slowdown and due to the depreciation cost of the capex which was put in place for the expected demand last year. As in LMW, I don’t think the company is going bankrupt and hence plan to hold on. At the same time Ashok leyland is not as cheap as LMW
Hinduja global
I have written on Hinduja global earlier (see here and here). My main concern was the high cash holding of the company which is being maintained in foreign sub. The company has since then tried to clarify the above fact (details of the cash holding are provided in the last quarter’s result).
In addition the company came out with a higher dividend and fairly good results in Mar 2009. As a result the stock has almost doubled since then. In the current quarter, the company reported a topline growth of 30% and bottom line growth of almost 80%. The company continues to perform well. My hesitation in building a large position still continue to be the corporate governance issues, even though the company is cheap by objective standards.
Gujarat gas
I have written on gujarat gas earlier (see here ). The company reported Q2 numbers and i am fairly satisfied with the numbers. The company has been facing a supply issue due to lower level of supplies from two long term sources.
The Q1 results were hit considerably due to the above shortage. The company has been able to secure some supply in the spot market to meet some of the demand. The topline grew by around 10%, though the volume dropped by around 5% during the same period.The bottom line grew by more than 10% if one eliminates the one time gain in last year’s result.
The company is doing quite well and I expect the profit growth to improve once additional sources of supply are tied up. Finally, the company has declared a 1:1 bonus issue. This does not change anything fundamentally other than higher dividends in the future. However the market has reacted positively and pushed up the stock price.
I have written on LMW earlier here. The domestic and export demand for the company has collapsed since then. The company is now running at 40% of its capacity. The company reported a 60% drop in topline and 76% drop in profits. Time to panic and sell the stock ? Not quite.
The market was pricing much worse earlier. For a period of few months, the company sold for almost its cash holdings without any value being given to any other assets.Now that the market has realised that the company is not headed for extinction, it has revalued the company to a certain extent.
At the same time, I do not have any illusions that the fundamentals of the company will suddenly turn completely. The company is in for some tough times till the demand returns back to the pre-crisis levels and accordingly the profit peak achieved over the last few years could take some time too.
However if one looks at the annual report, one can see that the company is doing a great job of managing the downturn. The company does not require much capex and has reduced the working capital too. The cash and equivalents are now up at almost 700 crs which comes to around 60% of the market. I personally don’t think the company is going bankrupt and hence plan to hold on.
Ashok leyland
I have written about the company earlier here and here. The company reported an almost 50% drop in sales and 80%+ drop in profits ( I like companies whose sales are dropping off the cliff :) ).
If you are interested in the company, I would encourage you to see the latest presentation by the company here. The company has taken pains to detail out the problems and how they are coping with the recession.
Ashok leyland has also been hit severly by the downturn and credit crunch. Although the demand is now stabilizing, the current quarter and maybe the next will continue to be hit due to inventory liquidation. The company books sales when it sells to the dealers. The slowdown in the demand has resulted in high inventory with the dealers which needs to be worked out. The only worrying factor in the results is the loss of market shares in HCV, especially in the mid segment.
The company’s results will continue to be hit for atleast a few quarters due to the slowdown and due to the depreciation cost of the capex which was put in place for the expected demand last year. As in LMW, I don’t think the company is going bankrupt and hence plan to hold on. At the same time Ashok leyland is not as cheap as LMW
Hinduja global
I have written on Hinduja global earlier (see here and here). My main concern was the high cash holding of the company which is being maintained in foreign sub. The company has since then tried to clarify the above fact (details of the cash holding are provided in the last quarter’s result).
In addition the company came out with a higher dividend and fairly good results in Mar 2009. As a result the stock has almost doubled since then. In the current quarter, the company reported a topline growth of 30% and bottom line growth of almost 80%. The company continues to perform well. My hesitation in building a large position still continue to be the corporate governance issues, even though the company is cheap by objective standards.
Gujarat gas
I have written on gujarat gas earlier (see here ). The company reported Q2 numbers and i am fairly satisfied with the numbers. The company has been facing a supply issue due to lower level of supplies from two long term sources.
The Q1 results were hit considerably due to the above shortage. The company has been able to secure some supply in the spot market to meet some of the demand. The topline grew by around 10%, though the volume dropped by around 5% during the same period.The bottom line grew by more than 10% if one eliminates the one time gain in last year’s result.
The company is doing quite well and I expect the profit growth to improve once additional sources of supply are tied up. Finally, the company has declared a 1:1 bonus issue. This does not change anything fundamentally other than higher dividends in the future. However the market has reacted positively and pushed up the stock price.
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